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  • 1.  Changes from a pandemic - A review of municipal issues

    Posted 30-09-2020 21:36
    Edited by Chris Champion 30-09-2020 21:40
    John Thomson, IFME President, presented a keynote address to the 2020 Annual Congress of the Swedish Public Works Association (SPWA).

    The title of the keynote was Changes from a pandemic - A review of municipal issues.

    The presentation was made in English and presented via Zoom on 15th September 2020.

    https://www.ifmeworld.org/viewdocument/changes-from-a-pandemic-review-



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    Chris Champion
    Secretary-General
    International Federation of Municipal Engineering
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    IPWEA Asset Management Pathway


  • 2.  RE: Changes from a pandemic - A review of municipal issues

    Posted 07-10-2020 18:36

    Questions to IFME President John Thomson from Swedish Keynote

    Question1

    For many years now the dense city has been the planning pattern for achieving resilient and environmentally friendly communities. (less commuting, good conditions for public transport etc.) Do You think that the pandemic will lead to a paradigm shift? For example, you have mentioned office space and new strategies for organising our daily work and also the benefits of less traffic. Will the smaller cities or even villages flourish, and will the bigger cities decrease? (In Sweden we use to talk about the green wave! Maybe there is a new one coming!) 

    Response.

    There are a number of areas that are likely to undergo a paradigm shift. Many organisations are now having to continue through "home working" . This has increased confidence in that process from many business sceptics as well as delivering good results for both employers and employees, so I expect this trend to continue.

    The lockdown and home working have indicated an acceleration in the downward trend in business estates requirements. The shift may be more noticeable from now on as estate management will continue to decline but probably from a lower point of expectation as a result.

    Traffic levels are clearly reduced and I think that new ways of working may have to reconfigure transport plans to a more local activity over traditional commuting to city centres.

    The final point is that we have now recognised just what impact a pandemic does to our societies. A Pandemic was always the number 1 risk on government risk assessments, but the impact was never really taken too far (I speak from experience). Now a paradigm shift will have to be undertaken to the governance of risk management systems into a real risk, and appropriate action plans developed accordingly.

    This downward trend will continue but from a lower point in time

    Question 2

    Rather than focusing on the difficulties of promoting public transport in a post-pandemic era, should not the public transport sector focus on re-design of the fleet and schedules to enable transportation with a safe social distance? Surely, a car-focused society cannot be the answer if we are to reach essential climate goals?

    Response

    My point is that due to home working the population density will shift to less urban zones and that public transport will not serve as high a potential population in cities. This affects their cost-effectiveness and their routes will alter accordingly. 

    Public transport is expensive and relies on a dense population to serve to make profits. 

    If there is an immediate shift of 20% of that customer base because of a pandemic the impact is obvious but local transport in suburban zones will pick up some of that traffic where it can. 

    The bigger picture is a reduction in the need to travel to work (hopefully). I'm not saying that cars immediately replace public transport, but I see a change now.

    The drive for public transport was to reduce traffic (there is a drop in that now) and reduce burning fossil fuel, 

    Less traffic gives a breathing space to enable clean individual transport. My article to your magazine goes into some detail there. 

    The shift is a reduced need for commuter transport and more community-based places. In that case, public transport becomes less cost-effective and reduces through market forces. transport is necessary for many so they will opt for individual system's (cars) but the need is also reduced.

    Public transport will evolve as needs develop (limiting capacity due to social distancing is not a sustainable practice) but there is a change happening now. How that plays out over the next years is uncertain, but home working is now far more prevailing as development now and is unlikely ever to return to the previous status.

    We as engineers need to think differently as a consequence.

    Response to question from Swedish association (Bo Backstrom)

    Thank you for answering!

    A general problem in Sweden is that the public transports in most cities are not profitable which means that the traffic is subsidised a lot. (I think in the city of Gävle it is about 40-50%). The pandemic has made it worse, fewer passengers and lack of ticket controls. It is definitely a challenge for the future to make public transports more attractive and cost-effective. In the rural parts of our country, there is often no option but cars.

    Further response by IFME President John Thomson

    Yes, I think that there has to be a rethink about transport systems as a direct result of the pandemic. There will not be agreement as many practitioners are evangelical about getting rid of all cars and replacing it with only public transport.  That won't happen.

    I fully expect that most countries will have to reduce public service budgets, at least in the short term. The UK has suffered from austerity since 2008 and is in a very poor place.  Bus subsidies are unlikely to survive as they now exist. So, cars in rural areas are the only solution.



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    Chris Champion
    Secretary-General
    International Federation of Municipal Engineering
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    IPWEA Asset Management Pathway